MD 1197 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352…353… FOR ERN CO…NWRN/N-CNTRL KS…MUCH OF SRN NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NWRN/N-CNTRL KS...MUCH OF SRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352...353... VALID 240354Z - 240500Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352...353...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN WW 353 AND REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW352. DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 0330Z INDICATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SERN CO...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NRN KS AND SERN NEB. SLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN /NEAR 40 KT BASED ON DDC AND ICT VAD WIND PROFILES/...WITH THE EXIT REGION SITUATED ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS IS FOCUSING A ZONE OF MODERATE WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WW 353...AND FAVORS CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE DURING THE NIGHT FROM NERN CO INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS. BASE REFLECTIVITY FROM THE GLD NEXRAD SUGGESTS CINH IS INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NWRN KS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTING REGENERATION OF NEW CONVECTION ALONG THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A BOWING MCS MOVING E OVER NERN CO. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /POSING MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT/ REMAIN POSSIBLE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 40-50 KT. ..GARNER.. 06/24/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... BOU... LAT...LON 39379733 38140295 40700284 41909736 39379733
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