SPC MD 1198

MD 1198 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353… FOR SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL NEB/NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL NEB/NWRN-NORTH
CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...

VALID 240728Z - 240900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN MCS OVER SWRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN ENEWD
MOVEMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADVANCING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL NEB WITH CONTINUED THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
GIVEN A NWD EXPANSION WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MCS INTO LINCOLN
AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES NEB...AND A CONTINUED SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW
INTO THIS PART OF THE MCS...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED ALONG
THE NRN PART OF WW 353 IN CENTRAL NEB.

A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL KS SUGGESTS THIS
PART OF WW 353 COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS /I.E. CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
MCS/.

DISCUSSION...AT 0720Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING
EXTENT AND STRONGEST CONVECTION WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
EXTENDED FROM RED WILLOW TO MCPHERSON COUNTIES NEB.  TRENDS IN VAD
WIND PROFILERS ACROSS KS AND NEB INDICATED SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE NRN EXTENT OF MCS WHILE THE REST OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS IN SRN NEB INTO NRN KS HAVE VEERED TO SLY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 09-10Z AND HAS ALREADY PROVIDED FOR MOISTENING
FROM S-N...WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /EXCEEDING 8 C PER KM/
HAVE RESULTED IN A NWD EXPANSION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.

THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH AN APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN SWRN NEB PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND SWLY MEAN FLOW
SUGGEST A CONTINUED ENEWD TRACK SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS MCS.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND THE AVAILABLE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..PETERS/HART.. 06/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39569744 39520040 39990085 40430100 41460128 42260085
            42469968 42319799 42059731 39569744

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1198.html