SPC MD 1199

MD 1199 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SRN IA / NRN MO / FAR NERN KS / FAR W-CNTRL IL


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA / NRN MO / FAR NERN KS / FAR W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241535Z - 241630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW ISOLD BOUTS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A DECAYING AREA OF STORMS OVER NRN IL
WITH AN ASSOCIATED MCV NEAR THE IL/IA/WI BORDER.  STORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER E-CNTRL IA TO THE N OF A COMPOSITE SLOW NWD
MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE/OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY.  THE
MORE ROBUST STORM THREAT HOWEVER IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WITH A LINEAR
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN IA
INTO NERN KS.  BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN HIGHEST TO THE S AND INVOF THE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SRN IA...PROBABLY RESULTING IN A DECREASING
SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS FROM I-80 NWD.

A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS IA DURING THE
DAY...WHICH IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING INTENSIFICATION OF
STORMS NEAR THE MO RIVER.  A 60 KT WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED AT 15Z AT
KOMA...AND OTHER STORMS MAY POSSIBLY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES.  AS A RESULT...ISOLD STRONG-LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
STRONGER CORES AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS SWRN IA AND NRN MO.

..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39769107 39659614 40529527 41339537 41669355 41239131
            40449079 39769107

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1199.html