SPC MD 1206

MD 1206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NWRN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE / ERN OK PANHANDLE / FAR SWRN KS / FAR NWRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE / ERN OK PANHANDLE /
FAR SWRN KS / FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242104Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A CONDITIONAL ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND
GUST THREAT POSSIBLE IN THE 22-04Z PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD OVER THE
NWRN QUADRANT OF THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE S OF AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION MOVING NEWD INTO SWRN KS.  SURFACE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 90S TO THE E/SE OF THIS CU FIELD WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
MAXIMIZED WITHIN A LEE TROUGH/CORRIDOR FROM SWRN KS INTO THE NWRN TX
PANHANDLE.  STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW /45-50 KT AT 8 KM AGL PER KAMA
VWP/ WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS UPDRAFTS MOVE FARTHER
E INTO GREATER MOISTURE.  IF/ONCE SCTD STORM INITIATION APPEARS
IMMINENT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED TO
ADDRESS LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36439971 34600153 34730255 35130262 36680165 37250072
            36940007 36439971

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1206.html