SPC MD 1207

MD 1207 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WRN/CNTRL KS…SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242211Z - 242345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL
KS AND SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW MAY BE
SEVERE...POSING A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AT 22Z...A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED OVER FAR WRN KS...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM WRN/SWRN NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS. A
HOT WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS RESIDES INVOF THE
DRYLINE...WHILE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO MID 60S WERE LOCATED
E OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS MUCH OF KS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING WRN KS...AND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF
40 KT MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EVOLVING ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE OVER WRN/CNTRL KS AND
SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
FROM 30-40 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 06/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   36990102 37240146 38030155 40450152 40740040 40079870
            38109872 37069989 36990102

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1207.html