MD 1229 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364… FOR ND…NERN SD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... VALID 252321Z - 260015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY SVR THREATS REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW IN N-CNTRL SD WITH A TROUGH...DEMARCATED PRIMARILY BY A WIND SHIFT...EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS/NEB AND CONNECTING WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER N-CNTRL KS. ENVIRONMENT E OF THIS TROUGH REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- APPROXIMATELY 8 TO 8.5 DEG C PER KM BASED ON MESOANALYSIS -- ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J PER KG. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL W OF THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LIKELY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...SHEAR VECTORS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION FROM NLY TO ELY WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR UPSCALE GROWTH LATER THIS EVENING. ..MOSIER.. 06/25/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 48970383 48979873 45049480 45059952 48970383
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1229.html
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