SPC MD 1232

MD 1232 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SW TX


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260047Z - 260145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS WITH AT LEAST SOME SVR POTENTIAL ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL KS
WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD INTO SW TX. THIS SURFACE LOW IS WITHIN
A LARGER SURFACE TROUGH WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. TSTMS
FORMED WITHIN A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS WITH MESOSCALE FORCING PROVIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY STABILIZE QUICKLY AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES BUT TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK
SHEAR BUT GIVEN THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT...A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AS A SECONDARY THREAT.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 06/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31790304 32550272 33080235 33490195 33440081 32750069
            30980141 31110300 31790304

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1232.html