SPC MD 1233

MD 1233 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SE KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260113Z - 260245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE KS MAY CONTINUE WITH
AN ATTENDANT SVR WIND AND HAIL RISK. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH...LEADING TO LOW WATCH PROBABILITY. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS S-CNTRL KS
WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. A
DRYLINE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THIS LOW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...DEMARCATED PRIMARILY BY A WIND SHIFT...EXTENDS
NWD...EVENTUALLY JOINING WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ACROSS N-CNTRL ND.

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUATION OF THESE STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE AND CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CAPPED. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES...PARTICULARLY BELOW
500 MB...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. VAD PROFILE AT ICT
REPORTED 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 302 M2 PER S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. MOST
REGIONAL VADS/PROFILERS ALREADY HAVE AT LEAST 40 KT AT 1 KM WITH
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AT THE LLJ INCREASES. THESE WIND
PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE INFLOW FOR THE ONGOING STORMS.

GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
SUGGESTION FOR CONTINUATION WITH A RESULTANT SVR RISK.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 06/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38019852 38749735 38859504 38079481 37199613 37139858
            38019852

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