SPC MD 1234

MD 1234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN NEB…WRN/CNTRL IA…NERN KS…NWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN/CNTRL IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260123Z - 260300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...WRN/CNTRL IA...NERN KS...AND NWRN MO
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SHOULD STORMS
FORM...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ZONE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS SSE FROM CNTRL SD
INTO CNTRL/ERN NEB AND NERN KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE LOCATED E OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY. THE 00Z RAOB FROM OAX APPEARS TO BE
ERRONEOUSLY MOIST IN THE 1 TO 3 KM AGL LAYER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. HI-RES RADAR
SHOWED A BRIEF REFLECTIVITY CORE NEAR NORFOLK AT 0110Z...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING E ACROSS
THE AREA...AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF A 40 KT LLJ...MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 06/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   42619364 42009292 41159279 39989302 39349433 39419581
            39789677 41059730 41999725 42739593 42619364

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1234.html