SPC MD 1235

MD 1235 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SWRN IA/SERN NEB/CENTRAL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA/SERN NEB/CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202024Z - 202200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
SWWD ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH STORMS NOW ONGOING AS FAR SW
AS N CENTRAL KS ATTM.  THE STORMS ACROSS IA/NEB ARE DEVELOPING W OF
THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY E OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE MO RIVER INTO CENTRAL
AND SWRN IA.  FARTHER S INTO KS...SOME BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD BAND
HAVE ALLOWED GREATER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT...BUT THIS IS BEING SOMEWHAT MITIGATED WITH RESPECT TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL BY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH SWD EXTENT.

STILL...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO FUEL FURTHER
INCREASES IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INVOF THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...IT
APPEARS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL COULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF WW
ISSUANCE ACROSS PART OR ALL OF THIS AREA.

..GOSS/HART.. 06/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
GLD...

LAT...LON   42389351 41469329 38109752 37210015 37950079 38830056
            40759834 42279565 42389351

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