SPC MD 1236

MD 1236 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO NORTHWEST OK AND OK/TX PANHANDLES


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO NORTHWEST OK AND
OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202345Z - 210115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP/INCREASE WITHIN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST OK AND THE EASTERN
OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY POSE A
SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN INCREASE/THICKENING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU INCLUDING SOME TOWERS/INCIPIENT ANVILS HAS BEEN
NOTED SINCE 2230Z SOUTHWEST OF AN ONGOING SEVERE TSTM NEAR RUSSELL
KS AS OF 2330Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR RUSSELL KS TO
NEAR DODGE CITY/LIBERAL KS AND INTO THE OK PANHANDLE NEAR GUYMON AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. ACCORDINGLY...IT
APPEARS THAT NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS SHARPENED TO A DEGREE OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HRS...AND VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS NEAR-FRONTAL AXIS THROUGH THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME.

NEITHER VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
VEERING PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /2000-2500 PER KG MLCAPE/
MAY ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND SOME BRIEF/TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS. SCENARIO MAY PROVE TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   38949904 38299843 37199863 36399935 36100166 36590279
            36920101 38129950 38949904

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