SPC MD 1237

MD 1237 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL/ERN IA…NERN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260244Z - 260415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL/ERN IA
AND NRN MO TONIGHT. STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A 30-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS NEWD FROM OK/KS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE AND WAA LOCATED IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE LLJ COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL YIELD
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN
IA INTO NRN MO...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER CNTRL IA POSSIBLY
SIGNALING AN AREA OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO UPSCALE GROWTH/MCS DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 06/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39309147 39179330 40109395 42789376 43339321 43229179
            42059066 39309147

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1237.html