SPC MD 1248

MD 1248 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419… FOR FAR NORTHEAST CO AND WESTERN NEB/FAR NORTHWEST KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST CO AND WESTERN NEB/FAR NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...

VALID 230403Z - 230530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 419 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTHWEST KS. GIVEN A
SCHEDULED 05Z EXPIRATION...A WFO TEMPORAL/SPATIAL EXTENSION MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WATCH 419...ALTHOUGH A NEW WATCH TO THE EAST
OF WW 419 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CONSOLIDATION OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH A TREND TOWARD A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR COMPLEX IN AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 AS IT
NEARS THE LEXINGTON/MCCOOK VICINITIES...ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERN FLANK
SUPERCELL PERSISTS ACROSS DUNDY COUNTY NEB AS OF 04Z. WITH A 50+ KT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOW EVIDENT IN REGIONAL WSR-88D
VWPS...PRIMARY INSTABILITY FEED /ALBEIT ON AN INCREASING ELEVATED
AND HIGHER CINH BASIS/ WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE STORM COMPLEX. AS SUCH...THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AND HAIL/WIND
GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD LINGER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEB AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTHWEST KS THROUGH 04Z-05Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL NEB...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ON A MORE MARGINAL/SPORADIC BASIS.

FARTHER NORTH...A SEPARATE MCS JUST NORTH OF THE NEB/SD BORDER
NORTHWEST OF VALENTINE NEB MAY POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CHERRY
COUNTY NEB WITHIN WW 419 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GUYER.. 06/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   42830220 43130181 43010031 42649974 40849939 39810097
            40000313 40900202 42830220

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