SPC MD 1250

MD 1250 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420… FOR SRN SD…CNTRL/ERN NEB AND ADJACENT WRN IA…NRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND ADJACENT WRN IA...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420...

VALID 230618Z - 230745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
OCCASIONAL STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND SOME HAIL PROBABLY WILL PERSIST
WITH CONVECTION UNTIL IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN NEAR DAYBREAK.

DISCUSSION...A CONTINUED GRADUAL VEERING OF THE 40-50+ KT CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS 850 MB JET...FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING
CONVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM CAPE WILL BECOME LESS SIZABLE WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...SO THE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL BECOME MORE
MARGINAL WITH TIME.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
THE SIZE OF THE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...THE
POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE A BIT
GREATER...PARTICULARLY WITH STRONGER STORMS NOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  STILL...BEYOND THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE SPORADIC IN NATURE.

..KERR.. 06/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...
UNR...GLD...

LAT...LON   44670038 44539798 42799560 40549502 39649695 39760001
            40350067 41570104 43750328 44670038

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1250.html