MD 1278 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381… FOR SOUTHEAST KS TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...
VALID 280451Z - 280615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 381 CONTINUES UNTIL 08Z WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSION OR
A NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SEMI-BROKEN CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
COINCIDES WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CLUSTER INTERACTING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF EARLIER
OUTFLOW FROM AFTERNOON STORMS. EARLY EVENING 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
SAMPLED A STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE/STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF 7.9
C/KM WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG MLCAPE. EVEN WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
GRADUALLY COOLED/STABILIZED SINCE THAT TIME...SUFFICIENT LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
..GUYER.. 06/28/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37629589 38219453 38709426 39249402 38269179 36669227
36719432 37439592 37629589
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1278.html
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