MD 1293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN CO…FAR SERN WY…FAR SWRN PARTS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...FAR SERN WY...FAR SWRN PARTS
OF THE NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281954Z - 282230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A CYCLONE CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY 30 NNW COS...WITH A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
NEWD FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER TO NEAR AKO AND THEN INTO NWRN KS.
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CUMULUS BUILDUPS INVOF THE
FRONT FROM AKO TO THE CYCLONE CENTER...AND INVOF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT RANGE. CONVECTION MAY STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN FROM THIS ACTIVITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
N AND JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE OWING TO A MODESTLY MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME N OF THE CYCLONE/FRONT. THIS REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S THAT ARC FROM THE LOWER PLAINS
INTO NRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA AMIDST STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...
POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND SVR WINDS. THE NWLY/NLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT WILL
HAVE A TENDENCY TO STEER DEVELOPING CONVECTION TOWARD THE DEEPER PBL
CIRCULATIONS S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHERE LARGE DCAPE WILL
ENHANCE THE CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SVR SFC WINDS IN PARTS OF
E-CNTRL CO. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
SVR POTENTIAL ISOLATED.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/28/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40940542 41410442 40790317 39280242 38130271 38040392
38270481 38990525 40940542
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1293.html
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