SPC MD 1301

MD 1301 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NWRN KS AND INTO S CENTRAL NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NWRN KS AND INTO S CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290324Z - 290430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...EVOLVING CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB IS SHOWING
LIMITED ORGANIZATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEVELOPING COLD
POOL.  SOME INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...THOUGH
WW REMAINS UNLIKELY ATTM.

DISCUSSION...EVENING RADAR DATA HAS REVEALED A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN KS AND ADJACENT SWRN NEB OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NEAR AND JUST N OF A W-E SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THIS
AREA.

EVENING RAOBS REVEAL A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE TOPPED BY SUBSTANTIAL
ELEVATED CAPE...BUT THE MARGINAL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT -- SUPPORTIVE
OF ONLY MODEST STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION -- WOULD SUGGEST
ISOLATED/EVAPORATIVELY INDUCED GUSTY WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.  HOWEVER...SOME EVIDENCE OF AN ENEWD
COLD POOL SURGE -- ARISING FROM THE INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION -- IS INDICATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ATTM.  WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY MORE
CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS
THIS AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WHILE WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM GIVEN LINGERING DOUBTS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...ANY SIGNS THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE COLD POOL SURGE IS OCCURRING COULD
WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/HART.. 06/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40109734 39420019 39690086 40860166 41440224 42069919
            41629726 40109734

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1301.html