SPC MD 1328

MD 1328 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN KS/NWRN MO AND ADJACENT AREAS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN MO AND ADJACENT AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010145Z - 010315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO...AS CONVECTION INCREASES.  WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY IF FURTHER ORGANIZATION OCCURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS NERN KS
EVOLVING ATTM INTO A MORE LINEAR/WEAKLY BOWING CLUSTER ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN APPARENT COLD POOL.  WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
WEAK...AND IS A MITIGATING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO A
WELL-ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT...THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT -- NORTH OF WHICH RESIDES A POOL OF
VERY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...CONTRIBUTING TO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRENDS SUGGESTING A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER MOVING TOWARD A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IN THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE.  WHILE QUESTIONS CONTINUE ATTM WITH RESPECT TO
LONGEVITY/INTENSITY OF THE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED LEADING-EDGE
CONVECTION...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..GOSS/HART.. 07/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38999650 39469609 40039614 40429536 40619340 40009306
            39429316 38939381 38999650

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1328.html