SPC MD 133

MD 0133 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 100738Z - 101245Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD FROM
WEST-CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEB/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE SNOW BANDS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES EXIT REGION OF POLAR
JET/LEADING PORTION OF A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ALONG/WEST OF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT ANGLES FROM NORTHWEST KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
NEB...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC/IR SATELLITE IS ALREADY INDICATIVE OF A
CONTINUALLY ORGANIZING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB.

THIS SAME TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/CLOSE AND OTHERWISE SLOWLY
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. AS SUCH...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEB/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD THROUGH
12Z-15Z IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
THE PROXIMITY OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH ONGOING TSTMS
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST KS AND NEARBY UPPER DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO
SNOWFALL RATES. ACCORDINGLY...1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE MOST INTENSE PORTIONS OF WHAT SHOULD AN EVOLVING
APPROXIMATELY 50 MILE WIDE HEAVY SNOW BAND.
FURTHERMORE...INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A
FACTOR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY.

..GUYER.. 02/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43749872 42819950 41690021 41060107 41310197 41800206
            42800179 43790076 44389971 44199877 43749872

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