MD 1351 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400… FOR S-CNTRL SD / N-CNTRL NE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT MON JUL 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL SD / N-CNTRL NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400... VALID 090036Z - 090200Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A NEW ADDITIONAL WATCH BEYOND 0200 UTC IS UNCERTAIN BUT BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH TIME AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW STORMS OVER N-CNTRL NE WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAVING RECENTLY WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OR DISSIPATED. THE DISCUSSION AREA IS LOCATED BENEATH A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY PATCH DENOTED IN WATER VAPOR...APPARENTLY IMPLYING SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. FURTHERMORE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DECREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. DESPITE THESE LIMITING FACTORS...WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA BY MID-EVENING AS A LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 40 KT INVOF THE N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NE BORDER LATE TONIGHT. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE MO RIVER IN S-CNTRL SD TO THE MID 50S IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE NE PANHANDLE HAS LED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1400 J/KG MLCAPE PER 00Z/09 LBF RAOB/. GIVEN THE ISOLD STORM COVERAGE AND A POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLD SEVERE...WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS TO WHETHER SEVERE WATCH 400 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 0200 UTC. ..SMITH.. 07/09/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41220259 43610298 44150101 44189829 41749830 41220259
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1351.html
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