SPC MD 1351

MD 1351 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING EXTREME ERN CO…WRN NEB…EXTREME WRN KS…WRN PANHANDLE OF OK…EXTREME NERN NM…NWRN TX PANHANDLE.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING EXTREME
ERN CO...WRN NEB...EXTREME WRN KS...WRN PANHANDLE OF OK...EXTREME
NERN NM...NWRN TX PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012343Z - 020215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR
SVR LIMITS...CAPABLE OF MINOR WIND DAMAGE...THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.  ATTM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/ISOLATED FOR WW.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SUCH AREAS OF CONVECTION ALREADY ARE EVIDENT
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA...BOTH ALONG AND W OF SINUOUS
DRYLINE ANALYZED NEAR IEN...SNY...AKO...LHX...CAO...TCC.  THOSE
PORTIONS OF DRYLINE NOT SUBSTANTIALLY MODULATED BY TSTM OUTFLOW MAY
RETREAT WWD THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.  HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS WILL PLAY GREATEST ROLE IN ANY ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT VIA FORCED AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT PROCESSES ON LOCAL
TO MESOBETA SCALES.  ELONGATED PLUME OF FAVORABLE BUOYANT AND WEAKLY
CAPPED BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR WILL PERSIST NEAR AND E OF DRYLINE.
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...BUT SO DOES CINH.
PRECONVECTIVE TEMPS GENERALLY MID 90S F AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING...ALONG WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F...APPLIED
TO MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE MOST AREAS.
REGION IS UNDER STRONGLY DIFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW...BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY STG...RESULTING IN 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
OVER MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR.  DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
AUGMENT GUST POTENTIAL LOCALLY FROM THESE TSTMS...UNTIL
NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP NEAR-SFC PROFILE OF STATIC STABILITY TO MINIMIZE GUST POTENTIAL
WITH REMAINING CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
ABQ...

LAT...LON   36380394 37590339 39980293 41960354 42960401 43020203
            41740110 38990082 36850183 36150260 36380394

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1351.html