MD 1359 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 092034Z - 092200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID SFC HEATING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO 104-108F ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM WEST OF GCK TO NEAR RSL. HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/DEEPENED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR PER GRADUALLY EXPANDING PRECIP CORES. GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY ESEWD INTO A HIGH PW AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WITH SFC TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 50F. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER PRECIP CORES...ESPECIALLY IF CLUSTERING OCCURS. SEVERE COVERAGE MAY REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ..DARROW/HART.. 07/09/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39050174 39209966 38729890 38009936 37720156 39050174
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