SPC MD 1366

MD 1366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100637Z - 100800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM
FAR NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN MO OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL MO.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION/INCREASING ORGANIZATION
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. TO ITS EAST...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S/LOWER 70S F
RESPECTIVELY...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER CINH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE. MLCAPE REMAINS BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG NEAR AN EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM FAR NORTHEAST KS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MO/SOUTHEAST IA. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND
GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE/INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...WITH AID OF A MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. HAIL POTENTIALLY TO SEVERE LEVELS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN MO GIVEN AMPLE
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...AND
SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT /PERHAPS EVEN INCREASING/ CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED EVEN WITH INCREASING CINH GIVEN THE STEEPNESS OF
THE LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY IF ADDITIONAL COLD POOL
EXPANSION/FORWARD PROPAGATION OCCURS.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 07/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39169509 39629530 39909530 40159448 40369221 39529241
            38629371 38629482 39169509

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1366.html