SPC MD 1376

MD 1376 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408… FOR ERN CO…WRN KS…SERN WY…SWRN NEB…NEB PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SERN WY...SWRN NEB...NEB
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408...

VALID 110033Z - 110200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN
KS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS. MEANWHILE...MORE
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

DISCUSSION...DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS APPEARS TO BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN CO AS OF 00Z...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EWD PROPAGATING COLD POOL. WITH
MODERATE MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS
IN PLACE PER 00Z DDC SOUNDING AND RECENT MESOANALYSIS...A SEVERE
WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE ERN PART OF WW 408 ACROSS WRN KS
WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CORES. NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH...BUT A SMALL DOWNSTREAM
WATCH OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE WW 408 MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NRN PART OF
WW 408 ACROSS SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...BUT A FEW ROBUST
CELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...BUT
A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AFTER
02-03Z AS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WANES.

..DEAN.. 07/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37100090 37080217 37050295 37500375 37980374 38740345
            39500308 40530387 41040471 42080470 42550413 42980361
            42960276 41510162 40480096 39480044 38439988 37349993
            37110021 37100090

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1376.html