SPC MD 1398

MD 1398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF ERN/CNTRL OK…S-CNTRL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN/CNTRL OK...S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142252Z - 150015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH GRADUAL
WWD-MOVING STORMS FROM ERN OK/KS.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS
ERN OK WITHIN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ALONG AN EFFECTIVE
DRYLINE INDUCED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON THE E SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE OZARK PLATEAU. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS/STRATIFORM RAIN EARLIER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A
PERSISTENCE OF STRONG STORMS TILL AT LEAST SUNSET. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED IN THE PURCELL PROFILER.
STILL...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SAMPLED IN TULSA VWP DATA
SHOULD SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 07/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35339558 35039507 34529522 34499571 34709626 35619707
            36259718 36999732 37389734 37699713 37769660 35339558

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1398.html