SPC MD 1432

MD 1432 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR KS…MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 081630Z - 081900Z

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR SEEMS TO BE INCREASING FROM NERN KS TO NRN MO LATE
THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A FEW CLUSTERS OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING AMIDST A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WHERE PW VALUES ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...IN EXCESS OF
1.75 INCHES. THE MAXIMUM IN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST/THETA-E AXIS ACROSS
THE AREA LIES TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WHILE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS WEAK...THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIES WITHIN A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT BACKGROUND ASCENT. MORNING SOUNDINGS
DEPICTED THE PRESENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...IN
EXCESS OF 4KM AT TOPEKA...WHERE RESULTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES CAN
ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND RAINFALL RATES. VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT PROPAGATION WILL FURTHER
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 07/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39179437 39119561 39019735 39439757 39669743 39909651
            39969552 40129467 40139390 40199335 40009264 39809232
            39779209 39369201 39199215 39049313 39179437

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