SPC MD 1461

MD 1461 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NE OK…SE KS AND SW MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SE KS AND SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131951Z - 132115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SW
MO...SE KS AND NE OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM CNTRL
MO SWWD TO NEAR INDEPENDENCE KANSAS ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO
2000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A THERMAL AXIS WHERE TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID 90S F AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. AS SFC
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER
THIS AFTERNOON...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST. WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION PULSE IN NATURE
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BRIEF IN DURATION. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORM CORES.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 07/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38389375 37569509 37459583 37829675 38399739 38379770
            38069796 37379770 36129691 35699634 35679565 36489435
            37799314 38389375

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