SPC MD 1462

MD 1462 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SERN KS…ERN OK…WRN/CNTRL AR


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS...ERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221731Z - 221900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS FORMING OVER EXTREME SERN KS AND NERN OK MAY SPREAD
SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN OK INTO WRN/CNTRL AR THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AT 1715Z...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
CNTRL KS SEWD INTO ERN OK AND CNTRL AR. CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING
ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY OVER ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR...WITH
STRONG DESTABILIZATION CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG AND TO ITS W WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 90S. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IS AIDING IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SEWD ACROSS KS...WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTING
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EXTREME SERN KS INTO NERN OK. AREA VWP/S ALSO
SHOW DEEP-LAYER WNWLY FLOW FROM 20-30 KT IS ALIGNED WITH THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AND SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO CNTRL AR IF STORMS OVER NERN OK CAN GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. GIVEN CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS...WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 07/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37019484 35079143 33869141 33689276 34639485 35909638
            36739676 37379642 37019484

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1462.html