SPC MD 1464

MD 1464 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN NEB…NERN KS…FAR NWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222034Z - 222200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS OVER SERN NEB...NERN
KS...AND FAR NWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE COVERAGE SUFFICIENT FOR
A WW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE IS MOVING E ACROSS AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED OVER SERN NEB/NERN KS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY
KS DURING THE LAST HOUR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ATTM...STORM LONGEVITY
AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 07/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39999733 40619683 40679567 40229483 39449480 39029580
            39209692 39999733

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