SPC MD 1466

MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL/SWRN KS AND N-CENTRAL OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL/SWRN KS AND N-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222217Z - 222315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR TSTM 30 W OF KICT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
NEW UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN KS MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SVR TSTM 30 W ICT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WITH 35 KTS OF NWLY
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SE
MOVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF COMPLEX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
W/SW OF KICT...AND A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FARTHER WEST...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN KS WHERE SFC
TEMPS HAVE EXCEEDED 100 DEG F. VERY LARGE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS
/AROUND 50 DEG F/ WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. STORMS MAY AGGREGATE AROUND MERGING
COLD POOLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED SVR WIND
THREAT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT
AND PSBL WW ISSUANCE.

..BUNTING/HART.. 07/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38190155 38230071 37949815 37669725 37169672 36629687
            36469755 36769832 37089908 37230078 37470162 37700195
            38110184 38190155

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1466.html