SPC MD 1475

MD 1475 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 433… FOR WRN/CNTRL NEB…WRN SD


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEB...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 433...

VALID 230534Z - 230630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 433
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 433 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE TSTM WATCH IN NEB IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ONE THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR
AND/OR EVOLVED OUTSIDE OF WW 433. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL /ALBEIT
ISOLATED/ HAS DEVELOPED INTO PORTIONS OF THE NWRN NEB. WITH A 30 KT
SLY LLJ SAMPLED IN CYS/GLD VWP DATA...TSTM CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST
DESPITE W/NWLY FLOW AOA 2 KM AGL AIDING IN MAINTENANCE OF AN
EML/CAPPING INVERSION. STILL...WITH THESE CLUSTERS REMAINING WELL N
OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE FRONT ORIENTED W/E ACROSS FAR NRN
KS...ROBUST STRENGTHENING OF SEVERAL UPDRAFTS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 07/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42380397 44610404 45050381 44980320 44270251 43520165
            42909960 41929937 40899987 40850196 41170324 42380397

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