SPC MD 1476

MD 1476 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO CNTRL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231246Z - 231415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY EXIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SUBSTANTIAL TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY PROBABLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EVIDENT
BEHIND AND AHEAD OF ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO CNTRL KS. 12Z TOP/LBF RAOBS BOTH SAMPLED 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
OF 9 DEG C/KM. LACK OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 20 KT PER TOP/OAX RAOBS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT TIME OF DAY
IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY...ROBUST DOWNSTREAM HEATING WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AND THERE
IS CONCERN FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK PERSISTING THROUGH
THE MORNING.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 07/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   40949547 40899474 40589364 39629356 38769441 37999543
            37469660 37659779 38399869 38849866 39549810 40269660
            40949547

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1476.html