SPC MD 1483

MD 1483 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO SE KS…NE OK…SW MO…NW AR


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO SE KS...NE OK...SW MO...NW
AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231956Z - 232200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY BY 21-22Z
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SE KS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY GENERALLY TRACK S/SE TOWARD NE OK
AND FAR SW MO/NW AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE BY 21-22Z IN THE VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND/OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE
SE KS/NE OK BORDER. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...AND 19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED RAPIDLY WEAKENING INHIBITION.
GIVEN STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD
AREA...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE QUITE VIGOROUS ONCE
INITIATION OCCURS. EVOLUTION OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS A BIT
UNCLEAR AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR SHOULD
BE ADEQUATE TO COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER FORCING ALOFT.

CURRENT THINKING IS A S/SE MOVING STORM CLUSTER WILL EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO A BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS SRN KS AND MOVE INTO OK/SW
MO/NW AR. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL KS...STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED WHERE FORCING IS WEAKER
STILL...AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP INTO THIS
EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/KERR.. 07/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38009455 38339658 38679881 38589967 38289997 37949970
            37419915 36649758 36259615 35999463 36069396 36419344
            37039330 37579369 38009455

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1483.html