SPC MD 1504

MD 1504 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SRN SD…WRN NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 192242Z - 192345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SCNTRL
SD AND WRN NEB EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE SD ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT VALENTINE NEB SHOWS 40 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR SUGGESTING THE STORMS COULD DEVELOP A SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD
PERSIST IF THE LINE CAN ORGANIZE FURTHER. DUE TO THE VERY HOT SFC
TEMPS ABOVE 100 F ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
F...TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE VERY LARGE SUGGESTING OUTFLOW GUSTS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT MAY BE THE LESSER OF
THE TWO THREATS DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 07/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   40950082 41889954 42429910 42979865 43409845 43909890
            44129971 44020051 42520196 41280221 40950082

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