SPC MD 1505

MD 1505 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL AND SERN NEB…NRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN NEB...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242154Z - 242330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL AND
SERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN NEB WHERE MLCAPE
IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. SEVERAL STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAX MOVING SEWD OUT OF SRN SD EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SWD TO THE VICINITY OF GRAND ISLAND AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN KS
LATER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. IN ADDITION TO THE
INSTABILITY...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN SCNTRL NEB ARE ESTIMATED AROUND
50 KT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ANALYZED ACROSS WRN NEB.
THIS ALONG WITH ISOLATED CELL COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT
RELATIVELY CONFINED.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 07/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40699640 41819740 42179844 42209942 42000052 41550079
            40980084 39990043 39469968 38939813 39039685 39559614
            40049608 40699640

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1505.html