SPC MD 1521

MD 1521 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444… FOR WCNTRL TO SRN KS…OK PANHANDLE…NCNTRL TO NW OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TO SRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...NCNTRL TO NW OK
AND NRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...

VALID 252343Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS SW KS AND
THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE
SERN EDGE OF WW 444....A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER FAR SW KS WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS NW KS. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG
WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER NW
KS SHOULD SUPPORT THE STORMS SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 444
THIS EVENING. AS THE CELLS APPROACH THE EDGE OF WW 444 LATE THIS
EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE LOCATED IN SRN KS AND NRN OK MAY ENABLE THE
DEVELOPING MCS TO REMAIN SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME
MORE DOMINANT IF A LINEAR MCS CAN DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 07/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   39279968 37810063 36670159 36330198 36060215 35740213
            35520185 35409961 35659834 36319724 36569664 37009638
            37679648 39289855 39279968

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1521.html