SPC MD 1534

MD 1534 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448… FOR SE WY…NE CO…SW NEB…AND FAR NE KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...NE CO...SW NEB...AND FAR NE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448...

VALID 270118Z - 270245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL PERSIST WITH
EXISTING SUPERCELL STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS THROUGH
LATER THIS EVE.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL
NOW OVER WRN MORGAN CNTY CO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY SSE
WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NE CO. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WHILE LIMITED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS...IS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL FARTHER E...ESPECIALLY E OF A ROUGHLY N-S WIND SHIFT
LINE OVER THE HIGH PLNS. THE WIND SHIFT LINE ATTM EXTENDS FROM 30 E
COS TO 20 ENE DEN TO NEAR FCL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY
WWD. COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT AND 40 KT NNWLY 500 MB FLOW ALONG SWRN
FRINGE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE NOW MOVING SE ACROSS ERN
WY...SETUP MAY SUPPORT STORM SUSTENANCE INTO AT LEAST MID-EVE INTO
THE E CNTRL PART OF THE STATE...DESPITE LOSS OF SFC HEATING.

OTHERWISE...LOSS OF SFC HEATING SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR NEW
STORMS ELSEWHERE IN WW...WITH THE EXCEPTION PERHAPS OF AREA ALONG
STNRY NW-SE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM LAR TO FCL...AND ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MORGAN CNTY COMPLEX.

..CORFIDI.. 07/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39590369 39980409 40030491 40390493 40590493 40940505
            41240521 41650528 42200531 42600508 42380421 42020385
            41640361 41130287 40900225 40420173 39970141 39570148
            39510227 39540296 39540357 39590371 39590369

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1534.html