SPC MD 1556

MD 1556 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SRN KS AND FAR NRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN KS AND FAR NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291906Z - 292100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MUCH OF SRN KS
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NRN OK AND
EVEN SWRN MO LATER TODAY. LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL
KS INTO SWRN MO...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO SWRN AND S
CNTRL KS. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S F ALONG WITH UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD HELP TO INCREASING SPEED
CONVERGENCE. WHILE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG...GIVEN THE
BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THIS WILL CREATE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...PERHAPS A TORNADO AND THEN DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO MERGE DUE TO OUTFLOW PRODUCTION.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 07/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36510005 36710087 37430090 37930060 38320031 38409829
            38399696 38209601 37849534 37509490 37009473 36559497
            36389552 36399680 36510005

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