MD 1558 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450… FOR PORTIONS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450... VALID 292201Z - 292330Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS SVR TSTM WATCH 450. A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES MAY IMPACT PARTS OF S-CNTRL AND SERN KS. DISCUSSION...MIXED-MODE CONVECTION CONTINUES 60-80 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SFC STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE NNW OF GARDEN CITY KS ESEWD TO S OF CHANUTE. WHILE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LIES S OF THIS FEATURE...AT LEAST MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY EXTENDS SOME DISTANCE N OF THE FRONT WHERE RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL HEATING ARE ALSO LIMITING MLCINH. DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LEWP SEGMENTS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE IN S-CNTRL/SERN KS WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OWING TO THE ENHANCED STREAMWISE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW NEAR AND N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH AROUND 150-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH PER VWP DATA. AREAS THAT COULD BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE KINGMAN COUNTY SUPERCELL...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND S OF WICHITA. SIMILARLY...A LEWP SEGMENT OVER CHASE/LYON/GREENWOOD/BUTLER COUNTIES...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING BOWING COMPONENT...COULD MOVE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD COFFEY/WOODSON/WILSON/ELK COUNTIES. OTHER MORE QUASI-LINEAR-MODE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING SWD INTO SWRN KS AND NWRN OK TO THE E OF A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS AND S OF THE FRONT. RELATIVELY MORE VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS ACTIVITY MAY FOSTER A PRIMARILY DMGG-WIND/LARGE-HAIL THREAT. ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/29/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36530013 38710026 38239521 36039521 36530013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1558.html
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