MD 1560 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292234Z - 300030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE TOWERING CUMULUS AND
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING INVOF A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS THAT
ROUGHLY EXTENDS FROM E OF LIBERAL KS TO WNW OF BORGER TX. STRONG
INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO THE MIDDLE 60S HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR AND E
OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS
POSSIBLE. SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN EXCESS OF 30F IN MANY
AREAS WILL ENHANCE THE DMGG WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTING STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING A
SPEED MAX REMAINING DISPLACED TO THE N/NE OF THE AREA...DEEP SHEAR
IS LOWER COMPARED TO THAT FARTHER N/NE. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. AND...WITH DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT/LARGER-SCALE COLD
POOLS FORECAST TO REMAIN NE OF THE AREA IN WW 450...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/29/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
LAT...LON 35570251 36870143 36790018 35840013 35120069 34850153
34970226 35570251
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1560.html
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