SPC MD 1573

MD 1573 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WRN KS…SERN CO…NERN NM…OK/TX PANHANDLES


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...SERN CO...NERN NM...OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311834Z - 312030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A FEW STRONG CELLS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER NERN
NM...WITH DEEPENING CU FIELDS EXTENDING INTO SERN CO. FARTHER E...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED ACROSS WRN KS...WITH TCU THERE AS
WELL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BOTH INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MID 60S OR HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND WEAK ELY SURFACE
FLOW.

MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL...YET SUFFICIENTLY
LONG HODOGRAPHS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
SEVERE STORMS. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE OVER NERN NM/SERN CO...AS WELL AS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO WRN KS. STORMS WILL THEN PROPAGATE MAINLY IN A SWD
DIRECTION...AFFECTING THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND FAVORABLE TIMING WITH PEAK
HEATING...A SWATH OF BOTH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 07/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34800103 34520177 34620302 35100384 36380418 36960393
            37740314 38620190 38670134 38310047 37650009 36380025
            35290021 34800103

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1573.html