SPC MD 1577

MD 1577 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453… FOR SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST NM AND TX/OK
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...

VALID 312256Z - 010030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 453 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST NM INTO
TX/OK PANHANDLES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN SEVERE
TSTM WATCH 453...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AS OF 2245Z ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM/FAR SOUTHWEST KS. WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT BEEN
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG...WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND
30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT SCENARIO
SHOULD BE CONTINUED STORM MERGER DEVELOPMENT WITH A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT VIA SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NM/FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.

..GUYER.. 07/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39200098 39060048 37659973 36490031 35010237 35580445
            38640348 39200098

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1577.html