SPC MD 1589

MD 1589 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX PANHANDLE/NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252148Z - 252345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE/NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN OK INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN A HOT/DEEP-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WELL SOUTH OF A NEB/NORTHERN KS
SURFACE FRONT...WITH AMBIENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100F
AND TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F. A 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM LAMONT OK IS GENERALLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SBCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1250-2250
J/KG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. AS STORMS GENERALLY DRIFT
EASTWARD WITHIN A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT WATER LOADING/PRECIPITABLE WATER ATOP A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH AMPLE DCAPE...SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS/POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   34890242 35950201 38479912 38699557 37679483 36729580
            36379903 35020061 34890242

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