SPC MD 1593

MD 1593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME S CENTRAL NEB…N CENTRAL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME S CENTRAL NEB...N CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020447Z - 020615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MERGING OUTFLOWS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SWD/SEWD MOVEMENT
OF THE MCS IN SRN NEB AND NRN KS...WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF
THE SEVERE STORM RISK WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE MERGED INTO AN
EXTENSIVE MCS THAT IS MOVING SWD/SEWD FROM SRN NEB INTO N CENTRAL/NE
KS.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND LINGERING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF
WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL KS.  SUBSTANTIAL SLY
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF 30-40 KT AND MERGING STORMS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED SEWD MOTION OF THE MCS INTO KS.  HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO COOLING SLOWLY WITH TIME AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS INCREASING.  ALSO...PRIOR STORM BEHAVIOR AND THE
ORIENTATION/MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUGGEST RAPID
SEWD STORM MOTION.  THESE FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE
NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CLEAR.

..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39409773 39169713 38929705 38599726 38449767 38409810
            38439895 39219911 39739927 40009952 40199965 40379966
            40429929 40239892 39889847 39409773

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1593.html