SPC MD 1601

MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR S-CNTRL/SERN KS…FAR N-CNTRL/NERN OK…FAR SWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...FAR N-CNTRL/NERN OK...FAR SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 022359Z - 030100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALTHOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION INTO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXISTS FARTHER E INTO
SERN KS/NRN OK...AND PERHAPS SWRN MO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED WFO/S SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A CLUSTER OF TOWERING CU
AND CB/S SW OF DDC CO-LOCATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SW KS AND
NEAR A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SLOW TO STRENGTHEN...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS OCCURRING OVER BARBER COUNTY WWD INTO CLARK
COUNTY...BUT REMAINS RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED. WITH A MODESTLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET LATER THIS EVENING...A TREND FOR
INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST. LIMITING FACTORS LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO ARE THE PRESENCE
OF MEAGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALONG WITH WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UPDRAFTS FOR A RISK OF
DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 08/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36219498 36609757 36999937 37199991 37850000 38529943
            38639838 38559705 38549600 38219485 37549390 36519401
            36219498

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1601.html