SPC MD 1603

MD 1603 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460… FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS…NRN OK…FAR WRN MO AND NWRN AR


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS...NRN OK...FAR WRN MO AND
NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...

VALID 030320Z - 030415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED
IN A W-E ORIENTED BAND APPROACHING I-70 IN CNTRL KS. ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE FARTHER S INTO SERN KS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF
STORMS EXTENDING FROM NESS COUNTY ESEWD INTO HARVEY COUNTY KS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY JUXTAPOSED WITH THE NOSE OF A 25-30 KT
LLJ...WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING NWD TOWARDS I-70. FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES NWD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD TOWARDS PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL
KS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /E.G. MID-70S DEWPOINTS F/
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AS
WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IS LESS VIGOROUS
GIVEN WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT AS AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD INTO SERN KS AND MOIST ELY
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS MAINTAINED...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION
WILL STILL EXIST.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 08/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36439491 36539590 36849716 37409793 37879863 38119943
            38329986 38659965 39069897 39129795 39029700 38939594
            38879531 38689461 38099413 36509426 36439491

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1603.html