SPC MD 1604

MD 1604 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460… FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK TO WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO AND FAR NORTHWEST AR


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK TO
WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO AND FAR NORTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...

VALID 030443Z - 030615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 460 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK INTO FAR WESTERN MO/NORTHWEST AR.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO /WHERE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED/.

DISCUSSION...STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL KS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXPANDING SURFACE COLD POOL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION/PROXIMITY OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND PRESENCE OF
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS KS VIA SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY/PRIOR
OUTFLOW...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE COMPLEX...WITH A POSSIBLE EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK VIA COOL POOL UPLIFT. REGIONAL
DERIVED WIND DATA REFLECTS A 30+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF THE EVOLVING STORM
COMPLEX.

EVEN WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW /AOB 25-30 KT BETWEEN 4-6 KM/...AT
LEAST A DEGREE OF FORWARD PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION SEEMS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS MCS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR...WITH A HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS/POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING
OTHERWISE SUPPORTING A DAMAGING WIND RISK. WIND ASIDE...A
PULSE-TYPE/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A DISTINCT CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS INTO SOUTHEAST KS VICINITY/OZARKS.

ONGOING EASTERN KS MCS ASIDE...A SEPARATE CLUSTER OF ONGOING
ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FURTHER STRENGTHENS/VEERS OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER.. 08/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38769855 39159778 39099641 38469401 38099218 37429111
            36449106 36449234 36489462 36319695 37769688 38599730
            38769855

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1604.html