SPC MD 1605

MD 1605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SW-SCNTRL MO…NERN AR


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SW-SCNTRL MO...NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 030615Z - 030745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN MO.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS WCNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A LINE SEGMENT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SEVERE...HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN MO IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION. THE STORMS
ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE
SPRINGFIELD MO AREA. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED DUE TO
A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON MESOANALYSIS...MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS WCNTRL MO ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE SEGMENT MOVING EWD
AT ABOUT 40 KTS CURRENTLY IN ERN KS. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
EXTENDS SEWD INTO THE SPRINGFIELD MO AREA SUGGESTING THE LINE
SEGMENT MAY TURN A BIT TO THE RIGHT POSSIBLY AFFECTING SCNTRL MO IN
A COUPLE OF HOURS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37059042 37639145 38309264 38479301 38689374 38519419
            38079446 37369427 36819380 36239278 35909192 35729122
            35789072 35799065 36149025 36649016 37059042

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1605.html