SPC MD 1617

MD 1617 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465… FOR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AND OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO NORTH OK/FAR SOUTHERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0817 PM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AND OK/NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE TO NORTH OK/FAR SOUTHERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...

VALID 040117Z - 040245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 465 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z WITH THE PRIMARY
SEVERE RISK NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST CO. OTHER SEVERE
TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON A MARGINAL/ISOLATED BASIS...ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...AND PERHAPS INTO AREAS SUCH AS
NORTHWEST OK/FAR SOUTHERN KS.

DISCUSSION...ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO NEAR/EAST OF I-25...STORM
MERGERS/SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A
TRANSIENT/SOUTHWESTWARD-SHIFTING SUPERCELL MODE WITH ASSOCIATED
BRIEF TORNADO RISK...SUCH AS CURRENTLY ONGOING AS 01Z ACROSS
ELBERT/EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES. THIS SAME SCENARIO MAY CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO /02Z/ PRIOR TO PROGRESSIVELY MORE HOSTILE
STORM MERGERS AND INCREASINGLY COOLER/MORE STABLE INFLOW...WHICH
WILL TEND TO FURTHER LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS...HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID-EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/OK PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN
VICINITY OF NORTHWEST OK/SOUTHERN KS FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PERSISTENT/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MORE PREVALENT GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/MODEST MID-LEVEL WINDS. THAT SAID...SOME
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED
AS STORM INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TX/EASTERN OK PANHANDLES INTO
FAR NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A WATCH DOES NOT SEEM
LIKELY FOR THIS SCENARIO.

..GUYER.. 08/04/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36440136 37299987 37459884 37029809 36289916 35480123
            36010383 38230485 38560309 37930360 37060341 36460262
            36440136

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1617.html