SPC MD 1623

MD 1623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CO AND WRN/CENTRAL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT MON AUG 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN CO AND WRN/CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051814Z - 051915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD TO SCTD SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY.  A WW IS POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NERN CO SEWD INTO CENTRAL KS. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF
WRN/CENTRAL KS WITH MLCAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER. THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS THIS AFTN. DEEPENING/ENHANCED
CU FIELD IS EVIDENT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN
KS...AND AN ISOLATED LTG STRIKE WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED.

THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE IMPULSE ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER WRN TX...AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTN. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID AFTN
WITH A SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WW
ISSUANCE IS THE EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/ESE MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WW.

..BUNTING/KERR.. 08/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38510193 39100250 39430270 39570273 39820260 39930249
            40030237 40060211 39990149 39890094 39789969 39579918
            39159855 38629823 38209830 37769875 37790004 38450162
            38510193

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